Existing approaches of prescriptive analytics -- where inputs of an optimization model can be predicted by leveraging covariates in a machine learning model -- often attempt to optimize the mean value of an uncertain objective. However, when applied to uncertain constraints, these methods rarely work because satisfying a crucial constraint in expectation may result in a high probability of violation. To remedy this, we leverage robust optimization to protect a constraint against the uncertainty of a machine learning model's output. To do so, we design an uncertainty set based on the model's loss function. Intuitively, this approach attempts to minimize the uncertainty around a prediction. Extending guarantees from the robust optimization literature, we derive strong guarantees on the probability of violation. On synthetic computational experiments, our method requires uncertainty sets with radii up to one order of magnitude smaller than those of other approaches.

Machine learning can significantly improve performance for decision-making under uncertainty in a wide range of domains. However, ensuring robustness guarantees requires well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, which can be difficult to achieve in high-capacity prediction models such as deep neural networks. Moreover, in high-dimensional settings, there may be many valid uncertainty estimates, each with their own performance profile - i.e., not all uncertainty is equally valuable for downstream decision-making. To address this problem, this paper develops an end-to-end framework to learn the uncertainty estimates for conditional robust optimization, with robustness and calibration guarantees provided by conformal prediction. In addition, we propose to represent arbitrary convex uncertainty sets with partially input-convex neural networks, which are learned as part of our framework. Our approach consistently improves upon two-stage estimate-then-optimize baselines on concrete applications in energy storage arbitrage and portfolio optimization.

In this paper, we present a novel Reduced Robustified NMPC (R$^2$NMPC) algorithm that has the same complexity as an equivalent nominal NMPC while enhancing it with robustified constraints based on the dynamics of ellipsoidal uncertainty sets. This promises both a closed-loop- and constraint satisfaction performance equivalent to common Robustified NMPC approaches, while drastically reducing the computational complexity. The main idea lies in approximating the ellipsoidal uncertainty sets propagation over the prediction horizon with the system dynamics' sensitivities inferred from the last optimal control problem (OCP) solution, and similarly for the gradients to robustify the constraints. Thus, we do not require the decision variables related to the uncertainty propagation within the OCP, rendering it computationally tractable. Next, we illustrate the real-time control capabilities of our algorithm in handling a complex, high-dimensional, and highly nonlinear system, namely the trajectory following of an autonomous passenger vehicle modeled with a dynamic nonlinear single-track model. Our experimental findings, alongside a comparative assessment against other Robust NMPC approaches, affirm the robustness of our method in effectively tracking an optimal racetrack trajectory while satisfying the nonlinear constraints. This performance is achieved while fully utilizing the vehicle's interface limits, even at high speeds of up to 37.5m/s, and successfully managing state estimation disturbances. Remarkably, our approach maintains a mean solving frequency of 144Hz.

Abstract: This work addresses the Robust counterpart of the Shortest Path Problem (RSPP) with a correlated uncertainty set. Since this problem is hard, a heuristic approach, based on Frank-Wolfe's algorithm named Discrete Frank-Wolf (DFW), has recently been proposed. The aim of this paper is to propose a semi-definite programming relaxation for the RSPP that provides a lower bound to validate approaches such as DFW Algorithm. The relaxed problem results from a bidualization that is done {through} a reformulation of the RSPP into a quadratic problem. Then the relaxed problem is solved using a sparse version of Pierra's decomposition in a product space method.

Decision-making under uncertainty is hugely important for any decisions sensitive to perturbations in observed data. One method of incorporating uncertainty into making optimal decisions is through robust optimization, which minimizes the worst-case scenario over some uncertainty set. We explore Mahalanobis distance as a novel function for multi-target regression and the construction of joint prediction regions. We also connect conformal prediction regions to robust optimization, providing finite sample valid and conservative uncertainty sets, aptly named conformal uncertainty sets. We compare the coverage and efficiency of the conformal prediction regions generated with Mahalanobis distance to other conformal prediction regions. We also construct a small robust optimization example to compare conformal uncertainty sets to those constructed under the assumption of normality.

A wide variety of machine learning algorithms such as support vector machine (SVM), minimax probability machine (MPM), and Fisher discriminant analysis (FDA), exist for binary classification. The purpose of this paper is to provide a unified classification model that includes the above models through a robust optimization approach. This unified model has several benefits. One is that the extensions and improvements intended for SVM become applicable to MPM and FDA, and vice versa. Another benefit is to provide theoretical results to above learning methods at once by dealing with the unified model. We give a statistical interpretation of the unified classification model and propose a non-convex optimization algorithm that can be applied to non-convex variants of existing learning methods.